Very Interesting theory on economics and the enviroment.

[potskie]

Came across this today and it actually made me stop and think. Not many things do that to me so I figured I would share.


Conserve energy all you want, it will not save the environment. I can prove it, and you will be surprised how I do…

A few weeks ago I received an email from a local environmental group that shocked the hell out of me. It talked about an economist named William Stanley Jevon who, in the 1800s, came up with an economic theory called Jevon’s Paradox or later known as waste homeostasis.

This theory is now widely known in economics. Remember this.

It states that “as technological improvements increase the efficiency with which a resource is used, total consumption of that resource may increase, rather than decrease.”

Examples are increases in food production efficiency. By increasing the food produced per acre of land, it allowed the world population to grow, thus using more food. Theoretically, as we were able to get more food from the same amount of land, we should have been able to farm less. This didn’t happen. By making food plentiful, we encourage population growth. As cars got more efficient, people drove more. As they made more efficient refrigerators, people bought bigger refrigerators. The main idea here is that as we create more efficient items that use less energy, we will just use more of that item, and again use MORE energy.

You would say ‘well people won’t just buy bigger and bigger refrigerators as they get more efficient, so eventually people will buy a more efficient refrigerator that uses less energy, but is the same size as their old one. Saves energy, right?’

Here’s the interesting part.

What happens when technology gives you a more efficient item, that saves energy? CFL light bulbs. You save money. Your electric bill goes down, you have an extra $10 a month in your pocket.

What do you do with the $10? Buy a toy for your child?

It takes energy to make that toy. A factory in China uses energy to make it, a ship transports it here, trucks move it to stores… all using energy. You CREATED more energy usage by saving MONEY because of an ‘increase in efficiency’ (the CFL light bulb is more efficient than the incandescent)

Got a Hybrid car, saving on gas? Where does the money go that you saved?

Now, think you will beat the system and save your money? It goes in the bank, where it is used to give out LOANS to other people and businesses that then BUY things with that money. Those things ALL take energy to produce, run, etc. A business borrows money from a bank, part of it is your saved money - they build a new factory. More energy used.

Remember I said this is a widely known economic principle/theory…

Do you think GE does not know this? Does Al Gore not know this? Now ask yourself:

Are CFL light bulbs really saving the world?

Now there could be small gains in this. you could save a LOT of energy and use that money to buy something that only took a little energy to create. You could buy a tree and plant it in your yard. Don’t sweat though doing it, as the energy used to supply us with meat has been said to be a huge factor in CO2 emissions…as you burn calories, you literally use precious energy. Your *existence* uses up energy.

We cannot buy our way out of Global Warming or Peak Oil. We cannot even Save our way out of it. The only solutions, in my opinion, are:

- Have LESS people thereby consuming less energy. Population control. People use energy.
- save the money and never use it, or put it in a bank. Go out back and burn it. When you spend money, its really ‘energy consumption’ in a piece of paper. If it is destroyed, it is ‘energy’ that won’t be used, because it won’t be used to buy anything. On second thought, don’t burn it, bury it. Fire creates CO2, and then when the Global Warming thing blows over, you have a nice nest egg. If we don’t fall victim to hyper inflation that is…
- Buy something that creates energy. Solar panels. That’s about it. There are other things that create energy, but I think people would agree that solar panels will help us, while buying gas to power a generator to run your electric… not the best way to try and help the world.
- Pay MORE for energy, which really means - get less efficient. This is just the downward side of Jevon’s paradox. Ethanol is less efficient than gas. You might pay the same at the pump, but ethanol is subsidized - tax money. There is more money (energy) being put INTO the production of ethanol than their is a gallon of gas, so it is less efficient. This is the opposite of ‘progress’… The tax money used to subsidize the corn for ethanol takes tax dollars from some other program OR, we have to raise taxes. Somewhere, more energy (money) is being used to make that gallon of ethanol.
- Lastly - become poor. Less money = less energy used. Maybe Bush really IS smarter than we think, as he is destroying the US economy, we become poor, and use less energy!

That’s it. Don’t marvel at the gas you save in your hybrid when you go out and buy a new shirt with the money you saved on gas…

And I KNOW I am not the only one in the world who replaced 60 watt incandescent bulbs with ‘100 watt’ output CFL bulbs. “More light, and STILL cheaper than the 60 watt cost to run… now what will I do with that money I saved on my electric bill…”

Saving the world, aren’t we?

[kings-x59]

interesting. I read an article about hybrids not so long ago. The ecological and economic cost over the lifetime of a hybrid from raw materials to junkyard is worse than a full size suv. But, you feel good about saving the environment while driving it I guess. ignorance is bliss.

[6spd_monte]

Sweet, now I won't feel guilty about standing in front of the refrigerator with the door open while I drink juice from the carton!

[T.Low]

Good stuff, that Jevon's Paradox (assuming demand elasticity which is true of most products, that is)

The byproduct of making cars more effecient (with the intention of saving the planet) is that people will drive more because of its increased effeciency.

Great post.

[GEJ]

So the whole point,is there is no solution???.Right??.I mean why even get involved??. Being that I am one of the old guys here,got to tell when I was younger we believed the world was going to end at any momment.And yet here we are. :poke:Not to be rude or anything,but at my age,whatever is going to happen,will likely not effect me in my lifetime.And again,not to sound cold or anything,but I have faith in my kids and my grandkids to figure it out for themselfs as I have.So the article is yet another doom's day aproach which is a opinion without a solution.Same old,same old.When the people younger than me said they are going to put into action a do-able plan,that will get my 150% support.Until then,well.......

BTW:some kid working in a sweat shop with the money saved is now able to eat more,at least there is some cost benefit with that.

[astro355]

So the whole point,is there is no solution???.Right??.I mean why even get involved??. Being that I am one of the old guys here,got to tell when I was younger we believed the world was going to end at any momment.And yet here we are. :poke:Not to be rude or anything,but at my age,whatever is going to happen,will likely not effect me in my lifetime.And again,not to sound cold or anything,but I have faith in my kids and my grandkids to figure it out for themselfs as I have.So the article is yet another doom's day aproach which is a opinion without a solution.Same old,same old.When the people younger than me said they are going to put into action a do-able plan,that will get my 150% support.Until then,well.......

BTW:some kid working in a sweat shop with the money saved is now able to eat more,at least there is some cost benefit with that.

Jevon's Paradox is not a end of the world scenario. It's simply a reminder that things don't change. Circle of life kind of thing and no, my real name is not Simba. It does make sense. If the population was a constant, then every advance in efficiency would use less energy. But since the population does increase, surprisingly at a rate comparable to the increases in technologies related to the efficiencies, there is no overall gain.

[GEJ]

So the whole point,is there is no solution???.Right??.I mean why even get involved??. Being that I am one of the old guys here,got to tell when I was younger we believed the world was going to end at any momment.And yet here we are. :poke:Not to be rude or anything,but at my age,whatever is going to happen,will likely not effect me in my lifetime.And again,not to sound cold or anything,but I have faith in my kids and my grandkids to figure it out for themselfs as I have.So the article is yet another doom's day aproach which is a opinion without a solution.Same old,same old.When the people younger than me said they are going to put into action a do-able plan,that will get my 150% support.Until then,well.......

BTW:some kid working in a sweat shop with the money saved is now able to eat more,at least there is some cost benefit with that.

Jevon's Paradox is not a end of the world scenario. It's simply a reminder that things don't change. Circle of life kind of thing and no, my real name is not Simba. It does make sense. If the population was a constant, then every advance in efficiency would use less energy. But since the population does increase, surprisingly at a rate comparable to the increases in technologies related to the efficiencies, there is no overall gain.

I read it too.I understand it.I used the end off world as a example for when I was younger to show the point of talking in circles.

[Kabey's Van]

I agree with GEJ, for my entire life I busted my ass to have the latest thing.
Whether that was an electric can opener or the latest suv or the biggest house on the block.
And, like most people I know, one day something will happen that causes you to sit down and look very close at ones life and the direction it's headed in.
If you are of the younger set you may laugh at that and say "that will never be me".
I never thought I would own a minivan, but there it is sitting in my driveway and yes that's my name on the registration. When I told my friends I was going to buy it they pointed and laughed at me yelling "VANMAN, VANMAN".
I remember walking to school and seeing graffiti that said, "Ban the bomb" cause the US and USSR where pointing missles at each other. The Cold War. We made it though that.
I remember the Cuban missle crisis, both bad things but we made it though that too.
I remember watching awax jets fly over my house, and I'm supposed to be a peace lovin' pot smoking Canadian. A friend of mines' dad worked on the dew line.
This world has seen a lot of, what at the time seemed to be insurmoutable problems, yet we as a society seem to allways pull through.
For myself I believe once my generation is gone and my children are my age or older this world will be a very different place, one we can't even imagine.
I also believe that we won't kill ourselves due to poor decisions, deseases and viruses will do us in.
Peter

[astro355]

So the whole point,is there is no solution???.Right??.I mean why even get involved??. Being that I am one of the old guys here,got to tell when I was younger we believed the world was going to end at any momment.And yet here we are. :poke:Not to be rude or anything,but at my age,whatever is going to happen,will likely not effect me in my lifetime.And again,not to sound cold or anything,but I have faith in my kids and my grandkids to figure it out for themselfs as I have.So the article is yet another doom's day aproach which is a opinion without a solution.Same old,same old.When the people younger than me said they are going to put into action a do-able plan,that will get my 150% support.Until then,well.......

BTW:some kid working in a sweat shop with the money saved is now able to eat more,at least there is some cost benefit with that.

Jevon's Paradox is not a end of the world scenario. It's simply a reminder that things don't change. Circle of life kind of thing and no, my real name is not Simba. It does make sense. If the population was a constant, then every advance in efficiency would use less energy. But since the population does increase, surprisingly at a rate comparable to the increases in technologies related to the efficiencies, there is no overall gain.

Sorry, I guess I misunderstood when you said, "whatever is going to happen,will likely not effect me in my lifetime."


I read it too.I understand it.I used the end off world as a example for when I was younger to show the point of talking in circles.

[astro355]

So the whole point,is there is no solution???.Right??.I mean why even get involved??. Being that I am one of the old guys here,got to tell when I was younger we believed the world was going to end at any momment.And yet here we are. :poke:Not to be rude or anything,but at my age,whatever is going to happen,will likely not effect me in my lifetime.And again,not to sound cold or anything,but I have faith in my kids and my grandkids to figure it out for themselfs as I have.So the article is yet another doom's day aproach which is a opinion without a solution.Same old,same old.When the people younger than me said they are going to put into action a do-able plan,that will get my 150% support.Until then,well.......

BTW:some kid working in a sweat shop with the money saved is now able to eat more,at least there is some cost benefit with that.

Jevon's Paradox is not a end of the world scenario. It's simply a reminder that things don't change. Circle of life kind of thing and no, my real name is not Simba. It does make sense. If the population was a constant, then every advance in efficiency would use less energy. But since the population does increase, surprisingly at a rate comparable to the increases in technologies related to the efficiencies, there is no overall gain.

I read it too.I understand it.I used the end off world as a example for when I was younger to show the point of talking in circles.

Sorry, I guess I misunderstood when you said, "whatever is going to happen,will likely not effect me in my lifetime."

[mdmead]

- Lastly - become poor. Less money = less energy used. Maybe Bush really IS smarter than we think, as he is destroying the US economy, we become poor, and use less energy!

Interesting read overall and it makes sense to me. While the idea of population control goes against everything most of us believe in, it really is a needed solution. If you look at China and India, and then multiply the births out, things are going to get REALLY UGLY. On the other hand, I imagine man or nature will thin the heard before we reach that point.

Now getting to the point above... Come on, do people not understand that one man doesn't destroy an economy?! President Bush can work overtime to destroy the country if he so chooses, (and let me go on record stating I don't believe he has), but honestly, he basically just has a pen... Our troubles come from Congress and their inability to function. Anything perceived to be done by the President can be fixed by Congress. Why do you think the approval rating for Congress is under 15%... (10 points below President Bush)?

[mattblackratbus]

Do we all beleive in global warming? i´m not sure myself after all the dinosaurs did´nt do what we do but the world changed in the worst posiable way for them. is this not just the cycle of life? ...Johnny

[T.Low]

Global Warming? Not so worried. They have already changed thier marketing strategy to "Climate Change" since the warming part is too easily debateable. Its harder for the layman to see that the climate is not changing.


The thing that is slightly worrying for me regarding my childrens future and grandchildrens future is the place in the world that North America will occupy. Basically one fact alone stands out among the others: India and China, each with over 1.3 billion people, have a larger number of people with genius IQs than the entire population of the US and Canada combined.

But, as Gary eluded to, neccessity is the mother of invention. With technologies that are still unknown today, our world and our countries will be ok for a long time to come.

I leave you with this eye openning tidbit:

http://release.theplatform.com/content. ... WjB5JE0zrF

[dunedog]

I was sent that a while ago in written form ,....must say the video hits you a bit harder.
Whew,......thanks Tom (I think)

[T.Low]

Yeah. We all know that we are living in a time of flux, and I do realize that the rate of change is faster than ever before...but I am in fact behind the times.